FHFA HPI - 2023 Year-End Numbers

Dated: April 6 2024

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               FHFA’s HPI index is our best source for overall market appreciation data. The dilemma, the data is very delayed. We now finally have Q4 2022 data, although it would include some sales that went under contract in Sept. 2023. So, we can use this data to see where we’ve been, but the data to show the most recent changes to the market really won’t show up until this summer. So, with those caveats, here is the Q4 FHFA HPI Data.

               From the most recent HPI report – U.S. house prices rose 6.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 1.5 percent compared to the third quarter of 2023. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was up 0.1 percent from November. “U.S. house prices increased modestly over the course of 2023,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Acting Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “However, the market showed signs of softening as house price appreciation was lower in the fourth quarter of the year than in the previous quarter.”

Significant Findings

• Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.

• House prices rose in 49 states between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023. The five states with the highest annual appreciation were 1) Rhode Island, 15.1 percent; 2) Vermont, 13.3 percent; 3) West Virginia, 12.4 percent; 4) Connecticut, 12.2 percent; and 5) New Jersey, 11.4 percent. The two areas with annual price depreciation were 1) Hawaii, -3.4 percent; and 2) District of Columbia, -1.2 percent.

• House prices rose in 96 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters. The annual price increase was the greatest in Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD) at 13.8 percent. The metropolitan area that experienced the most significant price decline was Urban Honolulu, HI at -12.9% percent.

• All nine census divisions had positive house price changes year-over-year. The New England division recorded the strongest appreciation, posting a 10.3 percent increase from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023. The West South Central division recorded the smallest four-quarter appreciation, at 3.2 percent.

Trends in the Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas are available in our interactive dashboard: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/FHFA-HPI-Top-100-Metro-Area-Rankings.aspx. The first tab displays rankings while the second tab offers charts.

               Here’s a look at how these numbers played out for the MSA’s in Colorado compared to the 246 other MSA’s across the country (that made this report) and how Colorado compared to the other states plus the District of Columbia. Boulder County dropped another spot and is now in 5th place for appreciation since 1991 across the entire country. Boulder was also the second weakest MSA in the state, but still showing positive appreciation for the year. The chart below is sorted by the 1 year appreciation rankings.

               Here is a graph comparing the annual appreciation rates for the Boulder MSA (all of Boulder County), the Denver MSA (the City and County of Denver, Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, Adams County, Douglas County, the City and County of Broomfield, Elbert County, Park County, Clear Creek County, and Gilpin County) and the US. Another chart that shows the dramatic reversal in our market mid spring last year. Now that we have the 2023 data we can see appreciation rates rebounded but remain depressed.

               The national map, color coded by appreciation over the preceding 12 months. The western half of the country looking weaker than other parts.

               Many of the metrics I track are conflicting each other. In the past when I have seen this type of pattern, it has meant an unsettled market that isn’t clearly appreciating or depreciating when viewed from a wider perspective. The ongoing industry settlement turmoil and poor news coverage I’m sure has not been helping.

Happy spring everyone!

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Mike Malec

Mike has been helping people buy and sell real estate in and around Boulder since 1998, focusing on the residential market, with emphasis on quality service, dedication, personal attention, and custom....

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